One rating.
Two questions.
Your last 365 days across every account you trade, measured against account size. Edge is the chance your trading finishes a month up. Survival is the chance you get through it without blowing an account.
Know what moves your rating.
Edge rewards making money steadily against your account size. Survival rewards keeping your accounts alive. Your Prop Rating is √(Edge × Survival).
Edge
What’s the chance your trading finishes a month (21 trading days) up? Worked out from your average day and your typical swing, both as a share of the size of your open accounts.
Formula: Φ(√21 × s), where s = average day ÷ swing × n ÷ (n + 40); the swing is never less than 0.1% of account size
50%New trader
Survival
What’s your chance of getting through a month without blowing an account? A funded or live blow counts 1, an evaluation blow ½, and a withdrawal counts as a blow.
Formula: exp(−21 × (blows + 1) ÷ (n + 40))
59%New trader
Prop Rating
The two chances combined: √(Edge × Survival), capped at 0.99. It is a score, not a probability, and is always shown with its record, for example “0.62 · 140 trading days”.
n: trading days: days with at least one trade on any account, or a blow
0.54New trader
Five records, five ratings.
Each on a $50k account. Elite needs Edge and Survival of 60% or more, a real +0.4% month, 60 trading days, an up year and a funded or live account still running; Contender needs 0.40 or more and an up year; everyone else is Emerging.
Jo
Never passed. 16 evaluations blown in 120 trading days, −$4,800 (average −$40, swing $600).
Edge × Survival: 41% × 31% · 120 trading days
0.35Emerging
Riley
20 evaluations blown, 5 passed, 3 funded blown, 2 running. +$950 over 190 trading days (average +$5, swing $700).
Edge × Survival: 51% × 28% · 190 trading days
0.38Emerging
Riley, up $20,000
The same record, but +$20,000 over the 190 trading days (average +$105). Survival is under the Elite floor.
Edge × Survival: 71% × 28% · 190 trading days
0.45Contender
Sam
1 pass, 4 evaluations and 1 funded account blown. +$2,700 over 180 trading days (average +$15, swing $500). Edge is under the Elite floor.
Edge × Survival: 54% × 68% · 180 trading days
0.61Contender
Alex
2 passes. The first funded account lasted 95 days then blew; the second is 60 days in and up. +$10,800 over 180 trading days (average +$60, swing $500).
Edge × Survival: 67% × 83% · 180 trading days
0.75Elite